The Roles of Major Power in Korean Peninsula
By David Raja Marpaung S.IP M.Def
The core actors who are involved in the talks are North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, Japan and United States. Each party has their own interest in the North Korea Nuclear capability. Since 1970s, North Korea made a political decision to create its own nuclear weapons program.[1] I will use the terms "the North", "North Korea", "DPRK" to refer to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the terms "the South", "South Korea", "ROK" to refer to the Republic of Korea.
USA
The US agenda is to prevent the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea and to fight communism. North Korea is on the list of "rogue states" together with Iran and Syria. These states are either actively involved in terrorism against the US or are destabilizing regions that are important to the US. US seen the North Korea’s nuclear program as a military threat, since the nuclear capability would reach into Alaska[2]
North Korea is selling ballistic missiles to countries like Pakistan and Iran and is therefore perceived by the US as a threat to American security. The US seeks diplomatic solutions but does not rule out other options such as sanctions, negligence, so-called "surgical strikes", or regime change.
The US is also nervous that North Korea might sell off its nuclear technology to third countries.
The US is using different measures for the "rogue states", military intervention in the case of Iraq and threats followed by negotiation for North Korea. Recently, North Korea’s regime and its nuclear program is running contrary to US’s interest in the region[3]:
China
China is culturally very close to Korea. China is still traumatized by losing power to the West and by being treated as a second-class state at the beginning of the 20th century. There were strong links between the Asian communist states, China, North Korea and Vietnam who had closer ties with each other than with the Soviet Union. In the past, Korea used to have special status within the Chinese tributary system. Korea had to pay tribute but was free to manage its own affairs[4].
China has long been an ally of the North; fighting on their side in the Korean War, sometimes even disguised as North Koreans. Until the break-up of the Eastern Bloc, China was a bartering trading partner for North Korea[5]. China is still supporting the North with delivery of grain and crude oil and is North Korea's third largest trading partner. China established diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992.
China now has influence over North and South and is a strong advocate of non-proliferation, because major Chinese cities would be within reach of North Korean missiles.. In addition, China has a great interest in the North Korean state NOT collapsing, for it is keen to avoid an upsurge in the numbers of refugees coming to China.
China’s goal is to have its periphery stable and peaceful and is against a reunification scenario where one part swallows the other part. In addition, China's role in the Pacific area is growing in the wake of its economic opening and the economic success, and China seeks to play a greater political role in that area, too.
Japan
Japan was the former occupier of Korea, at the beginning of the 20th century. Japan is afraid of the nuclear threat, probably more than other countries since it has already suffered twice from the horrible after-effects of atomic bombs. Japan-ROK normalization treaty from 1965, Japan recognizes the South as the only legal government. There are tensions with North Korea over several issues: North Korea expects compensation from Japan for the occupation. Japan expects clarification concerning the cases of the persons abducted by North Korea. The Korean conflict also affects Japanese domestic policy. The country has a large Korean minority of about 680,000 people, many of which have North Korean affiliation. This minority comprises descendants of the 2 million slave workers that were either forced to come to Japan during the occupation or that came to escape the poverty in Korea. With the division of Korea, the Koreans in Japan became quasi-divided as well.
Regarding Japanese foreign policy towards Korea, there are four assumptions[6]:
1: "Japan has no foreign policy". That can be doubted.
2: "Japan's foreign policy is influenced by its relations with the United States"
3: "Japan’s North Korea policy has always been decided by politicians for personal reasons without strategy"
4: "Japan does not welcome the short term effects of Korean unification, but it will in the long run"
Japan cannot decide its North Korea policy without the US. Japan is also worried that a
stronger Korea might align with China against Japan .
Russia
After WWII, the Soviet Union backed Kim Il Sung's attack on South Korea, which is what started the Korean War, as well as helping the North with material and military personnel. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was the North's main ally. These close connections have waned. The relationship between Russia and North Korea are based on the ideology and political necessity, besides, they also have the same experiences in mismanage their economic policies. Russia see that North Korea increasing their nuclear capability in order to get the United States “attention” and give the NK some aid and better relations, while Russia sees that they need to stabilize the region in order to encourage economic projects among neighbors and to continue rebuilding its global prestige.[7]
Russia wants to play a more active role in negotiations and has called for six party talks (N/S-Korea, Russia, China, US, Japan). In this context, Russia could provide a balance to offset the dominant influence of the US. At present, Russia takes the view that Koreans should be the main players in resolving the problem of Korean unification.
[1] Vladimir Orlov, Nuclear Programs in North Korea and Iran: Assessing Russia's Position, Center for Policy Studies in Russia (PIR Center), 2000. p.1
[2] DeRouen, K.; Jackson, D.: Recent US Foreign Policy Regarding the Korean Peninsula. In: Heo, U.; Horowitz, S. A. (eds.): Conflict in Asia. Korea, China-Taiwan and India- Pakistan. Westport 2003 p. 105-117
[3] America’s National Interest, The Commission on America’s National Interest, July 2000, http://www.nixoncenter.org/publications/monographs/nationalinterests.pdf Accessed on May 27, 00.45 am
[4] China and North Korea: Comrades Forever?, International Crisis Group Report, February 1, 2006, p. 2. http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/north_korea/112_china_and_north_korea_comrades_forever.pdf accessed on May 26, 01.00 am
[6] Shigemura, T.: Reunification of the Korean Peninsula and Japanese foreign policy. In: Kwak, T.-H. (ed.): The four powers and Korean unification strategies. Seoul 1997 pp. 49-58
[7] North Korea-Russia Relations: A Strained Friendship, Update Briefing of International Crisis Group, December 2007
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