Defense Analysis: The Role of Big Player in Asia Pacific

The Role of Big Player in Asia Pacific

By Ir. Ade Muhammad, M.Han and his team
(Ade Muhammad team leader – Team member: Lt.Col. George Royke, Major. Marinir Ferry Wahyudi, Sandy Indrapratama,Captain. Rahmat Hudaya, Major Khairuddin)

"I am the object of criticism around the world.
But I think that since I am being discussed,
then I am on the right track."

Kim Jong Il
[in "Orient Express" by Konstantin Pulikovsky]

1. Introduction

Just like heaven. This area generally regarded as encompassing littoral East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Australasia near the Pacific Ocean, plus the states in the ocean itself Oceania. It is a huge area which is consist more than 35 countries. Asia Pasific now become an attractive area to develop a lot of issues and interest, as a transito and a silky route which is united between european and american interest.

Asia Pasific is the most dynamic place on Earth. Every single commodity from producent is come and go in this huge area. Accross South China Sea. Asia Pasific has a two different side in economic rules, a producent and also as a consumer. In security interest, there was a two block allies of political power in early cold war. So there are many big player with huge power of security interest play some role. As we can see at Vietnam wars.

Threats and problems is spread out well in Asia Pacific. From terrorism issues untill social unrest and poverty issues. That the reason from every single big player come to Asia Pasific. In security and politically issues, core sector countries which have played role in Asia Pasific are United States of America, China, Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Associantion of South East Asia Nation (ASEAN), and

Australia

. And others countries such Sri lanka, Cambodia, the People's Democratic Republic of Lao (Lao PDR), Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, FS Micronesia, Mongolia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Vanuatu as a Peripheral countries.

Further more in this paper we can see analysis of condition in asian Pasific correlated with world major power. How major power effect to Asia Pasific condition? Or how Asia Pasific face that major power interest. Who are the major power country which involve in Asia Pacific? We hope our paper can representing all that information about Asia Pacific recent condition.

2. Reccent problem

What is the problem in the Asia Pasific?

The main problem for the past decade in Asia Pasific are consist of 5 major problem[1];

The economic and social threat, like in Indonesia the poverty creates many problems. These problems also create the spill over to the neighbouring countries. For example is the problem with Malaysia for the illegal worker[2] (illegal worker exodus to Nunukan, North Kalimantan case in 2003). With Indonesian GDP only $3,900 and unemployment rate 8.2%[3]

Indonesia

keep facing the problem of poverty. But Indonesia is not alone, Srilanka, Myanmar,

North Korea

are in the same poor condition and potential to make a some sort of damage in the region.

The international conflict (inter state conflict), in ASEAN this problem is not a major problem. Still in the Asia Pasific, border dispute in the sense of bilateral conflict or multilateral conflict of interest still create the tension. For examples the long tension between Indo-Pakistani in Kashmir[4], or the fact that DPRK and ROK is in technically war. In the ASEAN might be the Incident on Malaysian Navy ship KDM Rencong run clash to the Indonesian Navy KRI Teluk Naga in Ambalat block[5] in 8 April 2005 morning was the best example.

The internal conflict (intra-state conflict), in the South Asia like Srilanka, they face the Tamil Tiger Eelam insurgence[6]. In the Southeast Asia, like Thailand, they have the Pattani problem in south of Thailand[7] and in the Philipines, the rise of Morro in On July 12, 2007, when the Islamic militants in Basilan, southern Philippines killed 14 marines, beheading 10 of them[8]. Also the interesting part the Intra-state conflict is the “internal problem” of China on Taiwan.

The spreading of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, DPRK are always on the spot on this issue. Pyongyang known have transferred the technology of their nuclear missiles to other countries such as Teheran[9]. Both are categorized as rough countries in the eyes of US and her allies. The nuclear issue also be the main theme of DPRK to seek attention her adversaries, including US and

Japan

, to get what they want.

The latest is from category of transnational organized crime syndicates.

Illicit drug trade: it is estimated that global illicit drug trade supplies around 200 million customers and it is worth $ 400 billion or 8% of the world trade.

Money Laundering: money laundering, bank secrecy and off-shores allow for the advent of a new economic power which manages ca. $ 500 billion, equivalent to ca. 2% to 3% of the world's Gross National Product. This new economic illegal power is ranked in the hierarchy of the greatest world powers.

Human beings in slavery-like conditions: Approximately 27 million people are currently living under conditions of slavery or slavery-like conditions. A very dark

forecast of citizens security is defined when one observes that from the antique slave trade, modern "uncivil society" has now developed slaves for rent, for lease, for sexual exploitation, even available on-line to be charged to credit cards.

Trafficking in women: Estimates indicated that about one million women and children are trafficked, of which about 250.000 from South East Asia. This business is worth around $ 5 - 7 billions a year.

Fraud: In the US, banks lost $ 53 million as a result of bank robberies in 1993, while bank fraud losses were an unbelievable $815 million[10].

Terrorism: the Jama’ah Islamiyah is the organizations who believe can achieve their goal with violence means[11]. The network is operated in the Southeast Asia, they present from Malaysia, to the Philipines. They also correlated to the transcriminal combining the illegal weapon, explosive, heroin from Afghanistan and money laundering (hawala system). Also close relationship with notorious Al Qaeda.

They responsible on; suicide bombings in Bali that killed at least nineteen people (October 1, 2005), The suicide car bombing outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta that killed three people and left more than 100 wounded (September 2004), The car bombing of the J.W. Marriott hotel in Jakarta that killed twelve people (August 2003), The bombing of a nightclub on Bali that killed 202 people (October 2002), A wave of church bombings in Indonesia that killed eighteen (December 2000), A series of bombings in Manila that killed twenty-two people (December 2000), A plot to bomb eleven U.S. commercial airliners in Asia that, the State Department says, Hambali helped plan (1995).

Many questions rising after list all of these phenomena in the Asia Pacific. What is the name of the strategic game playing in here? Who are the big players? Or the victims? Why they doing that? And what for? How they do that kind of problem? How the problem must be mitigate or respond? And the most important thing, how we (Indonesia) should do about the entire problem?

We would like to find out with academic framework as our tools to comprehend about the true role of the player in this region.

3. Framework

We would like to use some academic theory that the framework can be use to be the tools, to get deeper understanding of the situation, actors and cases.

· Barry buzan 5 dimension[12]

The theory of Dimension of Barry Buzan is intended to reveal the specific dimension. There are 5 dimension of analysis; Political dimension, Economical dimension, Military dimension, Environment dimension and Social dimension.

· Defining core sector, pheriperal, intrusive system

After identifying the dimensions then continue to these frameworks. That intend to define the actors / players in specific level or categories. The are 3 categories; core sector to define the big player in the region playing some certain of important role, pheriperal to define the actor in the less important role and intrusive system[13].

· Multilateral characteristic of organisation (Hegemonic-guided vs concert-open)[14]

There are many organisations in this region and the characteristic of the organisation could be identified by this framework.

Between Hegemonic character vs Concert character,

Between Guided Dialogue character vs Open Dialogue character.

· Hendarmin Shield

This is a new tools from ITB’s scholar specialized on Constitution Studies Ir. Hendarmin Ranadireksa, that show with simplified graphic that every state should have some sort of shield in the terms of economic development and security in their territory.

4. Analysis

· Barry Buzan 5 dimension for the Asia Pacific Players

i. Military

USA

with the budget spending of 2008 $623 billion[15] and the presents of 7^th fleet in the region. The most powerful military forces in the world.

China

is the next largest military power in the region, with budget spending of 2004 $65.0 billion[16], now known to build the deep blue water capability with navy carrier a 40,000 ton class aircraft carrier by 2010. The largest armed forces in the region and the largest airforce in the world, with strategic nuclear capability[17].

Russia

with budget spending of 2007 $50 billion[18], with the second strongest armed forces in the world and the most sophisticated war machine that influenced the world for the past 6 decades. Not mention the nuclear capabilities of Russia with brand new Topol M ballistic missiles in their new arsenal.

Following Japan with budget spending of 2007 $41.75 billion[19], even though still restricted by their own constitution the Jie Tai is the most sophisticated military forces in the Asia.

In South Asia is India with spending of 2009-2010 $32,7[20] billion, also the most influential military force in South Asia with Agni nuclear missiles collection.

South Korea

in the next, with 2008 $28,5 billion[21] and in the constant readiness to deal with their old advisory

North Korea

Australia

with 2008’s spending $ 24,8 billion[22], very close allies with US and they are not a hometown winner – outside looser, since WW I they have been active joined all major battle in the world. They are always small in numbers but respectable in the history of military. Their legendary Light Horsemen for instance, took over the Beersheeba city over the strong Germany and they come again in the Afghanistan take out the resistance of elite force Al Qaeda.

Back to South Asia,

Pakistan

are the next with $7,8 billion[23] spending in 2008. With close cooperation with China, Pakistan builds not only jet fighters but also nuclear capability (such as Shaheen-II ballistic missiles) as deterrent to

India

In Southeast Asia, Singapore are the strongest armed forces in the neighbourhood. With spending of 2009 $7,6 billion[24] and the most modern armed forces in ASEAN countries for example they built the Formidable-Class Stealth Frigate.

North Korea

is poor country but has big percentage on military budget[25], spending about $ 5,5 billion in FY 2005. They also well known have the nuclear capability with Tae Podong II ballistic missiles, support by uranium mines with four million tons of exploitable high-quality uranium. The intelligence reports estimate that DPRK possessed at least two nuclear warheads. Enough to make their neighbouring countries worried, South Korea and

Japan

Recently they launch their Tae Podong II in the cover of satellite launching, to provoke the region[26].

ii. Politically

USA

is a democratic system country presidential system. A global big player, she also play important role in Asia Pacific. A permanent member of UN Security Council has a veto right and very influential in foreign politic policy. Their interest is to secure and stabilize Asia Pacific and leading with global themes; democratization, human rights, environment, globalization economic and global war on terror.

The stabilizer in the region to counter balance Chinese growing strength in politic hegemony and

North Korea

nuclear blackmail.

China

is the communist system country. China is number 2^nd in political power in the region and permanent member of UN Security Council. They have strong interest in trade, foreign direct investment and tourism that require strategic security both in politic and military. In the UN, they played “Nice Boy” foreign policy, that ensure that China will be abstain in all issues in UN Security Council except issue that have direct correlation with Chinese interest[27]. They also play the “soft power” game (with various generous international aid programme) to spread out their influence to the states in the region to win their heart and minds.

Chinese also grow political influence in

USA

with their lobby in US. Congress, Washington, DC[28]. Following the success of the Israeli’s lobby.

China

has serious issue with

Japan

correlated to the history of Japan Imperial occupation in WW II[29].

Russia

is a democratic country with presidential system and federal system. There has been a separatist issues, with First and second Chechen war and several attacks in the Moscow. The Foreign politics of Russia has been emphasis on the economy rather than military hegemony. However they has been worried about NATO’s expansion and surrounding them with “nuclear wall” (that US diplomatically explained to contained the Iranian nuclear missiles – limited capability) with program of joint military patrol and usage of their radar facilities in Kazakshtan (later refused by US). These create tension to the neighbouring country that under US – NATO umbrella and Russia launch “a message” to US with their military operation to Georgia[30]. Russia has a border problem correlate with Asia Pacific region with Japan with Southern Kurils and China with Amur and Ussuri.

Japan

is a democratic country, with foreign policy was not self-assertive, relatively focused on their economic growth. Rely on the “Generous Diplomatic” that often gave the community financial aids, but for the past few years

Japan

looks like changing this policy slowly. The began participate for wider role in International community such as participate in Gulf War, send their troops under UN Peacekeeping to Cambodia, Mozambique, Golan Heights and the East Timor in the 1990s and 2000s[31]. After the September 11 attacks, Japanese naval vessels have been assigned to resupply duties in the Indian Ocean to the present date. The Ground Self-Defense Force also dispatched their troops to Southern Iraq for the restoration of basic infrastructures.

India

is a democratic country and has strong political alliances with Russia and China who has permanent membership in UN Security Council.

With recent terrorist attack at Mumbai[32] made India as a part of Global forces to fight terrorism, especially better cooperation with US security networks in the region.

Pakistan

now is a military junta domestic politic but still applied parliamentary system and in the foreign politics’ has played important role to “serve” US foreign policy in Global War on Terror. Pakistan government under President Musyaraf since 2002 received US$ 5,8 billion financial aid from US Government[33], to pursue the Al Qaeda Network Terrorist in the domestic domain of

Pakistan

. Also participate to restricting the border cities with Afghanistan. This political play of President Musyaraf, soften the US policy against Pakistani’s military junta that took over the democratic power and also neutralized their nuclear issues.

South Korea

is a democratic country with Presidential system. The foreign politic agenda of South Korea focus on two things, Economy and Security. They pursue Foreign Direct Investment mostly from Japan and US and also create strong political relationship with US for defence purposes. South Korea has political dispute with Japan about the history of WW II. Also the territorial dispute on Dokdo[34] island (Takeshima island) with

Japan

North Korea

is a communist system with fascistic type of leadership. Besides their “intimidating” activities to the region, DPRK has an active diplomatic movement[35], since 1999 they has been actively spread their influence and diplomatic charm. From the normalized diplomatic relationship with China in October 1999 to the DPRK and Singapore signed investment agreement and commercial cooperation agreement in December 2008.

Singapore

is a democratic country with parliamentary system, but doesn’t mean that the citizen has the equal rights, especially if they would like to critized their government. Singapore in foreign politics’ has been known as the most aggressive player in diplomatic arena. and to make sure their safety they have “Total Defence Policy” that correlate the defence with diplomatic, military and economy. Therefore they have many bilateral and multilateral arrangements like the Five Power Defence Arrangements, then they have strong political relationship with Washington, DC with the U.S. and Singapore signed a Memorandum of Understanding 1990, (allows the U.S. access to

Singapore

facilities at Paya Lebar Airbase and the Sembawang wharves). And the MOU has amended in 1999 to permit U.S. naval vessels to berth at the Changi Naval Base, which was completed in early 2001[36].

Malaysia

is a democratic country parliamentary system; the national policy for national security is inseparable between political stability, economic success and social harmony[37]. Malaysia has a staunchly non-aligned foreign policy stance. Malaysia avoid to have military pacts but grew slew of bilateral security and defence ties with surprisingly US and

Australia

[38]. Dr. Mahathir also the initiator of East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC) as alternative to APEC forum. They have been active also in the ASEAN and ARF.

Thailand

Is a democratic country with parliamentary system, but a military coup by the Council for National Security on 19 September 2006 make Thailand under the military junta and On 23 December 2007, a general election was held. Back to democracy[39]. There were no special contribution to the international agenda, might be because Thailand still preoccupied with her national political and domestic problem. But still geopolitically speaking Thailand has a strategic position as an important hub in the Asian continent. This reason makes US approaching Thailand with US-Thai Special Logistic Aggreement in 1963 to allow US using their territory to support US Vietnam war efforts[40].

Indonesia

Is a democratic country with mix parliamentary and presidential system. A chaotic politic system[41] and state management[42] creates looping of instability. With no solid vision of the leaders after Soeharto’s era[43] and obsolete view foreign policy of Free Active made Indonesia going no where. Non integrated policy and management also part of Indonesian political problem. Current interrelated issues include: alleviating poverty, improving education, preventing terrorism, consolidating democracy after four decades of authoritarianism, implementing economic and financial reforms, stemming corruption.

However Indonesia still has play a strategic role in the Asia Pacific, such as contribution to the APEC, ARF, ASEAN and active participation in the Global War on Terror in this region. Indonesia is also the most active country in the world that participating in the UN Peacekeeping mission. The geopolitics, natural resources and human potential resources are the strong points for the politics, but current condition Indonesia foreign politics still underpin by the interest of bigger player due because still weak in political system, economy and military.

Australia

is a democratic country with parliamentary system. Australia has an important role to support US policy in the region and create tension in the region, especially with Indonesia (in the East Timor issue[44]) but in the past, Australia also gave the same political support to Indonesian Independency from the Dutch Colonialization (a campaign that was initiated by Indonesian ‘rebels, refugees and exiles’ within Australia, and received support from the Australian maritime unions[45]) and during the Cold War with 23 CAC Sabres were donated to the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) between 1973 and 1975[46], has been an up and down relationships. The Bali Bombing lesson made Indonesia back in the first place of Australia’s foreign political agenda.

Australia

’s perceived that all threat to Australia most likely will be come through or from

Indonesia

as their home front yard. Therefore

Australia

established several political bilateral and multilateral relationships to anticipate this. Such as Australia-Indonesia Partnership for Reconstruction and Development (AIPRD) that value of $1 billion over five years towards reconstruction and development in Aceh and elsewhere in Indonesia[47]. Australia’s multilateral cooperation such as ANZUS[48], APEC, East Asia Summit, Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia.

Besides security issues they also have interest in the mineral resources near or in the Indonesia and huge investment in US and

China

iii. Economy –

USA

GDP of $48,000/capita – with -$568.8 billion (2008 est.) deficit in export, inflation 4.2% – investment inside US 2.22 trillion and outside US $2751 trillion[49]. The US Subprime mortgage crisis contribute lost $954 billion to international[50].

Japan

Gdp $34,200/capita – balance export (export-import) $187.8 billion (2008 est.) export $884,0 billion and import $696.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.) reserve of foreign exchange and gold $954.1 billion – investment in Japan $139.7 billion and outside Japan $597 billion[51]. US downturn in buying power market, will makes Japan export disturbed because

Japan

rely on the export efforts even though has also strong domestic market[52].

China

Gdp $6,000/capita – growth 9.8% / annum, balance export (export-import) $368.2 billion (2008 est.) and $1.156 trillion f.o.b import, reserve of foreign exchange and gold $2.033 trillion (31 December 2008 est.) – investment inside $758.9 billion (2007 est.) and outside $139.3 billion (2008 est.)[53]. China is also dragged into the global crisis due because very rely on the export and still weak domestic consumption.

Taiwan

Gdp $31,900/capita – growth 1.9% / annum, balance export (export-import) $25 billion (2008 est.) and import of $236 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.), reserve of foreign exchange and gold $296.4 billion (31 December 2008) – investment inside $102.3 billion (2008) and outside $135.3 billion (2008). Growth fell below 2% in 2008 because of the global slowdown.

Russia

Gdp $15,800/capita – growth 6.0% / annum, balance export (export-import) $97.6 billion (2008 est.) and export of $ 476 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.), reserve of foreign exchange and gold $600 billion (31 December 2008) – investment inside $491.2 billion (2008) and outside $370.2 billion (2008). The Global Crisis hit Russian Bank liquidity, that has to force

Russia

to launch a rescue plan of over $200 billion[54].

India

Gdp $2,800/capita – growth 6.6%/annum, balance export (export-import) -$38.39 billion (2008 est.) and import of $287.5 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.), reserve of foreign exchange and gold $250 billion (2008) – investment inside $142.9 billion and outside $54.21 billion (2008). Strong domestic consumption and rely on the IT service export, the global crisis has not reach yet into India[55].

South Korea

Gdp $26,000/capita – growth 2.5%/annum, balance export (export-import) -$6.41 billion (2008 est.) and import of $435 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.), reserve of foreign exchange and gold $ $201.2 billion (2008) – investment inside $103.7 billion and outside $ 74.6 billion (2008). Korea was hit hard by the global financial turmoil that began in September 2008. Stock prices fell by more than 40% for the year and the value of the won fell by approximately 26%. Korean GDP shrank in the fourth quarter and GDP growth for the year was just 2.5%[56].

Singapore

Gdp $ 52,000/capita – growth 1.2%/annum, balance export (export-import) $28.42 billion (2008 est.) and import of $ 219.5 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.), reserve of foreign exchange and gold $ 168.8 billion (2008) – investment inside $ 225.7 billion and outside $142.4 billion (2008). Real GDP growth averaged 7% between 2004 and 2007, but dropped to 1.2% in 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis and since then

Singapore

declare in the technical recession[57].

iv. Social –

USA

Population 307,212,123 (July 2009 est.) Population growth rate: 0.975% (2009 est.) a multicultural society or divergent society. Individual characteristic, both “gambling” and “peasant” culture[58].

Japan

Population 127,078,679 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate -0.191% (2009 est.) a homogen society, team player characteristic, with “peasant” culture.

China

Population 1,338,612,968 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 0.655% (2009 est.) a homogeny society, team player characteristic, with both “gambling” and “peasant” culture.

Russia

Population 140,041,247 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 0.467 % (2009 est.) a divergent society, team player characteristic, with both “peasant” culture.

India

Population 1,166,079,217 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 1.548% (2009 est.) a homogen society, team player characteristic, with both “gambling” and “peasant” culture.

South Korea

Population 48,508,972 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 0.266% (2009 est.) a homogen society, team player characteristic, with “peasant” culture.

Singapore

Population 4,657,542 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 0.998% (2009 est.) a divergent society, team player characteristic, with “peasant” culture.

Indonesia

Population 240,271,522 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 1.136% (2009 est.) a divergent society, not clear whether individual or team player characteristic, with no clearance about “gambling” and “peasant” culture.

Australia

Population 21,262,641 (July 2009 est.) population growth rate 1.195% (2009 est.) a divergent society, individual characteristic, with “peasant” culture.

v. Environment

USA

, Geographic is the world's third or fourth largest nation by total area, 3,794,083 sq mi (9,826,630 km²)[59] includes most climate types. The mineral resources are rich but still under preservation by US Government. The natural problem are hurricanes, and most of the world's tornadoes occur within the country, mainly in the Midwest's Tornado Alley. Inside the country US does have problem with the environment, air pollution resulting in acid rain in both the US and Canada; water pollution from the pesticides and fertilizers; limited natural fresh water resources; desertification.

China

is lies between Eastern Asia, bordering the East China Sea, Korea Bay, Yellow Sea, and South China Sea, between North Korea and

Vietnam

The western parts of China mostly consist of plateaus and mountains of Nepal, in the middle is Gobi dessert and in the western is the lower land densely populated alluvial plains ideal place for farming and cities. The mineral resources are rich.

The environmental problem are air pollution[60], water shortages, particularly in the north; water pollution from untreated wastes; deforestation; estimated loss of one-fifth of agricultural land since 1949 to soil erosion and economic development; desertification; trade in endangered species[61].

Japan

’s location is between Eastern Asia, island chain between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan, east of the Korean Peninsula. It’s a maritime country with no natural resources. The problem of environment are the air pollution from power plant emissions results in acid rain; acidification of lakes and reservoirs degrading water quality and threatening aquatic life, contributor to the depletion of Forrest in Asia[62].

Indonesia

, locate in Southeastern Asia, Strategic location archipelago between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean and Australia Continent and Asian Continent. Consist of 17.508 islands, maritime country but still under island nation’s doctrine. The environmental problems are severe deforestation; water pollution from industrial wastes, sewage; air pollution in urban areas; smoke and haze from forest fires[63]

Singapore

, a Strategic place between Malaka Strait and South China Sea. Small but vital for the sea transportation. Total area of 692.7 sq km, with land area of 682.7 sq km and water area of : 10 sq km. the environmental problem are waste disposal problems, seasonal smoke/haze resulting from forest fires in

Indonesia

[64].

Srilanka locate in Southern Asia, island in the Indian Ocean, south of India, unique place with many delta and the environmental issues are deforestation; soil erosion, occasional cyclones and tornadoes, flooding, coastal degradation from mining activities and increased pollution; industrial wastes pollutes water, air pollution in Colombo[65].

Australia

, Locate in Oceania, continent between the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean. Climate change has become an increasing concern in Australia in recent years[66], with many Australians considering it to be the most important issue facing the country[67]. The first Rudd Ministry has initiated several emission reduction activities[68]; Rudd's first official act, on his first day in office, was to sign the instrument of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.

· Defining

From the Barry Buzan analysis tools, we could conclude and define the countries in this region to the 3 category.

i. Core sector countries

USA

, Japan, China, Russia, Taiwan, DPRK, South Korea, India, Pakistan, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam

ii. Peripheral

Canada, Srilanka, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, the People's Democratic Republic of Laos (Laos PDR), Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, FS Micronesia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Vanuatu, Chile, Mexico, Peru

iii. Intrusive system

European Union

· Organization in the AP

i. Hegemonic à Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS)

ii. Guided à Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asian Development Bank

iii. Concert à ASEAN, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

iv. Open à Asia European Meeting (ASEM)

· Hendarmin Shield Analysis

Basically the principle shield of the country or state is similar to a principles of the castle in various culture, but represent the same principle.

The stonger part of the building is for protection of the softer part inside. The stronger part for defense would be build based on the perception of the threats will come from.

The defense part in the Hendarmin Shield analysis represented by red line, consist of military and economy build up that creating shield.

The softer part represented by white area.

USA

In US the shield of defense of military and economy lies on area known as West Coast and East Coas.

On that particular area US strategically focus to build up their major economy and military bases. This strategy needed because the threats mostlikely will come from this sides of their country. Meanwhile they have "empty" or undefended area in the central. They used this place as a central for their agricultural activities and also half of these central land are desert.

China

China put their stronghold line in the two lines. First the Coast confront of the China Sea. With the perception of enemy will come from this side, repeating the previous experience from British and Japan to China. They put Economy as well Military bases in this line of defense.

The other line of defense is on their "backyard" Tibetan and Himalayan mountains. This line is very strategic to defend because they have previous experienced having conflict with India. They put mostly Military bases along the line of defense.

Meanwhile, on the central of China that mostly desert of Gobi, less important to defend.

Russia

Russia concentrate their defense lines on 3 sides of their territorry. The Eastern area borderly with Japan at Vladivostok. The Southern area that bordered with several countries, including China alongside with Kazakhstan. Then the Western area border with "NATO barrier" from down of Georgia up to until Finland.

They does not expect the enemy come from the North due because the severe cold of North Pole as their natural protector.

Japan

Japan has complete their defense lines all around their country. They make an economy base as well military on North to counter with potential conflict Russia on Shakalin island, to the Western and Southern area to anticipate conflict with North Korea and the East for their previous experience with US attacking their central of Empire in Tokyo in WWII.

South Korea

South Korea put all round defense line with Economic and Military bases around the country sides. The Northern and Eastern to anticipate new invasion from North Korea. the Western and Southern from potential China's attack.

India

India has also all rounded Economic and Military bases put in place in their country sides. The Nothern to deal with Jammu Kashmir problem, the Western defense line to anticipate their nemesis Pakistan. The Eastern lines that face directly to Nepal and Himalayan mountains confronted with China and the Southern economic stronghold for logistics and access to the sea.

Australia

Australia perceived threats from their Northern side of the country. But they also put economic as well defense to the Western side and Eastern side. Meanwhile the central Australia that consist most of it of desert remain to become undefended area. This also to their "backyard" that there are most unlikely potential enemy come from this side.

Indonesia

Indonesia for a long time has been a centralized country.

As result, the concentration of Economic and Military bases lies in the Java island or Southern side of this country. This might be sufficient to deal with Australian potential attack from "behind".

Meanwhile the history of war in this region, thaught us that mostlikely enemy come from the North (South China Sea) in WWII and Konfrontasi era, as well the Western side to the Malaka Strait and the Eastern side that facing to Pasific Ocean (access for McArthur Leap Frogging to Philipines in WWII or 7th Fleet of US).

It means, Indonesia still open with lacks of strategic defense line to cover all of three sides of this country. The economic and military bases should be emphasis on these three sides more than in the Southern side, due because Australia has not been a military threats to Indonesia.

5. Conclusion

Thousand of interest gained together in Asia Pacific. Hot and “Sexy” issues from the rest of the world we can find and define in this region. The economic potencial seems have a balance within the threats in this area. Every country wheter in side and out side Asia Pacific look like want to take a part in every single development steps. It is some kind of evidence that Asia Pacific is the most dynamic area, comparing with other colony.

Major power countries, such as USA, Japan, China, EU, India, Pakistan,

North Korea

think that Asia Pacific is a place that should be taking control of. Dominate the Asia Pasific the way that thinked by the major power countries. Espescially in military issues. Over 20 billion

$ have been spending by Asia Pacific countries in military needs for the average.

The purposes for domination position which have been dream by major power are to dominate resources (raw industry material, natural resources, and labour), then silk way for distribution, and dominate the price. As we know and from data above, Asia Pacific is a strategic belt of natural resources and potencial market for trade.

The main problem for the past decade in Asia Pasific are consist of five major problem. The economic and social threat, like in

Indonesia

the poverty creates many problems. These problems also create the spill over to the neighbouring countries. The international conflict (inter state conflict). Border dispute in the sense of bilateral conflict or multilateral conflict of interest still create the tension. For examples the long tension between Indo-Pakistani in Kashmir. The internal conflict (intra-state conflict), in the South Asia like Srilanka, they face the Tamil Tiger Eelam insurgence. The spreading of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, DPRK are always on the spot on this issue. Pyongyang known have transferred the technology of their nuclear missiles to other countries such as Teheran. The latest is from category of transnational organized crime syndicates. Illicit drug trade: it is estimated that global illicit drug trade supplies around 200 million customers and it is worth $ 400 billion or 8% of the world trade. Then Terrorism: the Jama’ah Islamiyah is the organizations who believe can achieve their goal with violence means.

So, what should we do to encounter that kind of problem? Our analysis thought that soft power solution is the best thing that we can afford. By sharing bunch of diplomacy among the Asia Pasific countries will make high undertanding to each countries interest. Solve many problem, and build more caucuses, such as for counter terrorism, economical, military and other interest. And

Indonesia

should be active member there. In order to make a golden bridge between western interest and east cultural interest, between moslem world and other countries which interested in moslem countries.

[1] http://old.thejakartapost.com/yesterdaydetail.asp?fileid=20090209.F04 Prof.Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Jakarta Post, Opinion, March 15, 2009 - A more complex regional security for Southeast Asia 01-04-09 19:03

[2] http://www.liputan6.com/video/?program=news&id=49539 01-04-09 19:13

[3] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html#Econ 01-04-09 19:16

[4] http://www.acnet.ge/catastrophes/III_5.htm INDIA-PAKISTAN CONFLICT IN KASHMIR AND THE UNITED NATIONS - David Pipinashvili - Iv. Javakhishvili State University of Tbilisi, Department of Politology,1Chavchavadze Av., Tbilisi, 0128, Georgia, 01-04-09 19:22

[5] http://www.jawapos.com/index.php?act=detail_c&id=165996 Minggu, 10 Apr 2005,Kapal Malaysia Tabrak KRI.  01-04-09 19:24

[6] http://www.spur.asn.au/chronology_of_suicide_bomb_attacks_by_Tamil_Tigers_in_sri_Lanka.htm Chronology of Suicide Bomb Attacks by LTTE Tamil Tiger Terrorists in Sri Lanka 01-04-09 21:10

[7] http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hYoR_SAb7ckQJRyYCSlFo7SzT3fA AFP:Seven killed in Thai south violence: police 01-04-09 21:19

[8] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6290302.stm BBC News Online Article: Rebels behead Philippine troops, Last accessed 12 July 2007 01-04-09 21:14

[9] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123843944684370587.html EVAN RAMSTAD - ASIA NEWS MARCH 31, 2009 Korean Launch Could Spur Arms Sales 01-04-09 22:04

[10]http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:WCYV_ve6UnkJ:www.sandrocalvani.com/docs/20080920_Speeches_010131.pdf+transnational+organized+crime+syndicates+asia+pacific&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=id&client=firefox-a

Stop transnational organized crime: how the international community can cooperate to face “mobsters without borders” 01-04-09 22:33

[11] http://www.cfr.org/publication/8948/ Jemaah Islamiyah (a.k.a. Jemaah Islamiah) 01-04-09 23:00

[12] Prof. Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Lecture Security Asia Pacific 2009, Security Concept

[13] Prof. Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Lecture Security Asia Pacific 2009, Asia Pacific Defining the Region

[14] Prof. Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Lecture Security Asia Pacific 2009, Asia Pacific Defining the Region

[15] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm, world budget spending, 06-04-’09 21:56

[16] Ibid

[17] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/cv.htm, Aircraft Carrier Project, 06-04-’09 22:35

[18] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/spending.htm, world budget spending, 12-04-’09 21:24

[19] Ibid

[20] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2067rank.html, CIA World Factbook, Military expenditures, 06-04-’09 22:51

[21] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: The fifteen major spenders in 2007, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2067rank.html, CIA World Factbook, Military expenditures, 06-04-’09 22:51

[22] ibid

[23] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2067rank.html, CIA World Factbook, Military expenditures, 06-04-’09 22:51

[24] ibid

[25] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/index.html, North Korea Military Guide, 06-04-’09 23:04

[26] http://www.astroawani.co.id/2009/04/05/video/asia-plus/story-ap/korea-utara-luncurkan-roket.astro/, Korea Utara Luncurkan Roket 06-04-’09 23:34

[27] Prof. David Turns, on Lecture of MODULE C7 INTERNATIONAL LAWS OF WAR & THE USE OF FORCE: JUS AD BELLUM ; LESSON 3: LEGAL PERSONALITY AND ACTORS IN THE INTERNATIONAL LEGAL ORDER 07-04-’09 00:01

[28] http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=17567, Speaker appoints top China lobbyist - Hastert's national security adviser 'Li Ka-shing's person in Washington' 07-04-’09 00:45

http://multinationalmonitor.org/hyper/mm0697.07.html, The China Lobbys Campaign for Two-Way Trade with China 07-04-’09 00:55

[29] http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/4436425.stm, China Japan meeting: Your views,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1330223.stm, Japan's controversial shrine, 07-04-’09 00:53

[30] see analysis of Presentation of Georgia Conflict – by Syndicate V – Cohort IV – for Prof.Dr. Brig. Gen (Ret) Dick Bailey’s Security Sector Reform’s lecture

[31] www.mofa.go.jp/policy/un/pko/pamph96/02_2.html, Japanese Participation in UN Peacekeeping 07-04-’09 00:01

[32] http://www.rferl.org/content/Militant_Attacks_In_India_Leave_More_Than_100_Dead/1353758.html, Militant Attacks In India Leave More Than 100 Dead, 08-04-’09 21:01

[33] http://74.6.146.127/search/cache?ei=UTF-8&p=pakistan+received+us+aid+terrorist&y=Search&fr=ytff1-msgr&u=www.gao.gov/new.items/d08622.pdf&w=pakistan+received+receive+receiving+%22us+aids%22+%22us+aid%22+usaid+terrorist&d=HBMfO0xISbwf&icp=1&.intl=us, United States Government Accountability Office GAO Report to Congressional Requesters COMBATING TERRORISM The United States Lacks Comprehensive Plan to Destroy the Terrorist Threat and Close the Safe Haven in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, 09-04-’09 00:49

[34] http://www.geocities.com/mlovmo/page4.html, The Terroterial dispute over Dokdo, 13-04-’09 01:54

[35] http://www.kominf.pp.fi/Oaextra.html, DPRK. Foreign politics. Working relations with the strong state 09-04-’09 01:09

[36] http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2798.htm, Background Note:

Singapore

08-04-’09 00:05

[37] JN.Mak, Malaysian Defence and Security Cooperation – Coming out of the Closet. ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY COOPERATION, National Interest and Regional Order, East Gate Books 2004, page 129 09-04-’09 06:30

[38] Ibid page 127 09-04-’09 06:35

[39] http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSSP26321320080913, Thai ruling coalition begins search for new PM, 09-04-’09 07:30

[40] Chulacheeb Chinwanno, Thailand Perspective on Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific, ASIA PACIFIC SECURITY COOPERATION, National Interest and Regional Order, East Gate Books 2004, page 195 09-04-’09 12:36

[41] http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/55581/lucian-w-pye/the-politics-of-post-suharto-indonesia-post-soeharto-indonesia-r, The Politics of Post-Suharto Indonesia; Post-Soeharto Indonesia: Renewal or Chaos?;

Indonesia

: The Challenge of Change

http://ny.xmu.edu.cn/Article/ShowArticle.asp?ArticleID=5312,

Indonesia

: Experts predict chaos after April 9 election 09-04-’09 13:15

[42] http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/04/03/analyst-senses-poll-troubles-no-sign-political-chaos.html, Analyst senses poll troubles, but no sign of political chaos, 09-04-’09 13:15

[43] Hendarmin Ranadireksa, Visi Bangsa; Gudang Pangan, Tujuan Wisata dan Paru Paru Dunia, Media Artistika Bandung 2001, 09-04-’09 20:15

[44] http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp64.html, JPRI Working Paper No. 64: January 2000 - Australia-Indonesia Relations After the East Timor Upheaval - by Nancy Viviani, 09-04-’09 20:15

[45]http://72.14.235.132/search?q=cache:ToqBTRojKwsJ:arts.monash.edu.au/mai/asaa/drewcottle.pdf+support+australia+to+indonesia+independet&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=id&client=firefox-a, TRANSNATIONAL STRUGGLE: ASIAN SEAFARERS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR INDONESIAN INDEPENDENCE INAUSTRALIA, 09-04-’09 20:29

[46] http://www.adf-serials.com/2a94.shtml, ADF Aircraft Serial Numbers - A94- RAAF SABRE Mk.30/31/32 Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation CA-26 / CA-27, 09-04-’09 20:42

[47] the Statement of the Australia-Indonesia Partnership Joint Commission of 29 June 2006,

[48] http://www.australianpolitics.com/foreign/anzus/, ANZUS, 09-04-’09 21:28

[49] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html#Econ, 10-04-’09 01:20

[50] http://www.inilah.com/berita/ekonomi/2008/04/09/22048/as-sumbang-kerugian-global-us$-945-m/,

[51] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html#Econ, 10-04-’09 01:25

[52] http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5180XK20090216,

Japan

's economy slumps as global gloom spreads, 10-04-’09 01:34

[53] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html, 10-04-’09 01:25

[54]https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html#Econ, 12-04-’09 22:21

[55] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html#Econ, 10-04-’09 01:25

[56] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ks.html#Econ, 10-04-’09 03:34