Role of Major Power on DPRK’s Nuclear Issue
Introduction
January 17, 2009, the US nuclear expert announce that DPRK at least could armed thirty kilograms of plutonium[1] that enough to make four or five nuclear bombs.
On April 5, 2009, North Korea launched a rocket (Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2) over Japan that landed in the Pacific Ocean, an act that defied United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, which dictated that North Korea suspend all ballistic missile activities.
And May 25, 2009 DPRK conducted underground nuclear test.
All of these concludes that DPRK has a convincing capability of nuclear and missiles technology that creates a tension in the region as well the global. DPRK also exported the technology and expertise to the Pakistani and Iranian[2], that’s contribute the global spread of Weapon of Mass Destruction.
Background
What is the role of Major Power (Russia, China, Japan and US) to the DPRK nuclear issue ?
I would like to use Barry Buzan 5 dimension, SWOT, Graphic Analysis as my tools of analysis.
Analysis
Barry Buzan 5 Dimension - DPRK
Political,
a communist system with fascistic type of leadership. Besides their “intimidating” activities to the region, DPRK has an active diplomatic movement[3].
Economical,
Command Economy and estimated North Korea's GDP per capita (based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)) to be $1,700 (ranked 192 out of 230 countries)[4]
Environment,
With 120,540 square kilometres (46,541 sq mi). Borders with People's Republic of China and Russia to the north, and borders South Korea along the Korean Demilitarized Zone. West à Yellow Sea and Korea Bay, and east the Sea of Japan.
Social,
North Korea's population 23 million very homogeneous in the world.
Military,
Big percentage on military budget[5], spending about $ 5,5 billion in FY 2005. They also well known have the nuclear capability with Tae Podong II and Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2 ballistic missiles, support by uranium mines with four million tons of exploitable high-quality uranium.with estimation has already 4-5 nuclear warhead. Enough to make their neighbouring countries worried, South Korea and Japan.
Recently they launch their Kwangmyŏngsŏng-2 in the cover of satellite launching and underground nuclear test, to provoke the region[6].
SWOT analysis - DPRK
Strenght
-Nuclear Capability
-Balistic missiles technology
-Big Armed Forces
-China support
Weaknesses
-Severe Economic Crisis
(also famine and starvation)
-Isolated by sanction of economic and arms embargoes
-Weak government
Opportunities
-Diplomatic cooperation
-(Slight) Possibility of Reunification between two Korea
-Collapsing of DPRK (as opportunity and consequence of dependency on their tiranian leader)
Threats
-If US applied stronger policy (exp. stop negotiation and not fullfill DPRK demand)
-If China lesser/stop support because having bigger interrest to US (aim bigger US market, getting more investment)
Source graphic above[8]
Conclusion
Nuclear as DPRK bargaining chip
DPRK realized their competitive advantage in the region are only their nuclear capability. Because the military cannot sustain operation due because the economic crisis and current political situation (like the end of Cold War and emerging China that seems avoids conflict to sustain their economy growth).
DPRK mostlikely will make the most of this issue as their top bargainning chip to get some consession from the Major Power.
Role of Major Power
US à the policy are; one eye on deterrence, one eye on reunification, the role of US is “Security Guarantor and regional balancer”à the combination of economic, military, democracy and human rights instruments[10].
The strategy would be using Punish (sanction, embargoes) and Reward (financial aid, technical aid, humanitarian aids) strategy. The steps to support the strategy are;
o Strengthen arms control regimes
o Support multilateral export and import controls and cooperative threat reduction
o Defend against WMD attacks and manage consequences
o Pre-emption[11]
These steps are to win the goals of US to DPRK, which are;
o To halt its development of WMD
o To reduce the threat of war in the Korean peninsula
o To curtail participation by NK in international terrorist activity
Meanwhile
PRC role has been taking a “Good Cop” role, support DPRK and persuade them to give International more change to help DPRK economic crisis with soften DPRK’s willingness to use nuclear issue. PRC was “resolutely opposed" to the reccent nuclear test, urging its neighbour to avoid actions that would sharpen tensions and return to six-party arms-for-disarmament talks[13].
Japan role has been to comply with US Strategy and support with diplomatic and economic aids to DPRK. But in the other hand, despite the deep worriness, Japan are more than ready to conduct a defensive reaction to this threat with most sophisticated military capability and their long time alliance with US (if US is urged and consent them to do so).
[1] "North Korea claims to have weaponized plutonium". CNN. 2009-01-17
[2] http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/td-2-specs.htm 09-04-’09 01:09
[3] http://www.kominf.pp.fi/Oaextra.html, DPRK. Foreign politics. Working relations with the strong state 09-04-’09 01:09
[4] www.cia.gov, CIA World Fact Book 09-04-’09 01:09
[5] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/index.html, North Korea Military Guide, 06-04-’09 23:04
[6] http://www.astroawani.co.id/2009/04/05/video/asia-plus/story-ap/korea-utara-luncurkan-roket.astro/, Korea Utara Luncurkan Roket 06-04-’09 23:34
[7] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/index.html, North Korea Military Guide, 06-04-’09 23:04
[8] Prof.Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, ITB’s Defence Management Lecture of Security in Asia Pacific – Korea Peninsula
[10] Prof.Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, ITB’s Defence Management Lecture of Security in Asia Pacific – Korea Peninsula
[11] Prof.Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, ITB’s Defence Management Lecture of Security in Asia Pacific – Korea Peninsula
[12] Prof.Dr. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, ITB’s Defence Management Lecture of Security in Asia Pacific – Korea Peninsula
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