Political And Security Risk Analysis Of China

Political And Security Risk Analysis Of China

By David Raja MArpaung S.IP M.Def

SWOT ANALYSIS

Strength:

• China now is the biggest countries with highest economic development. ( From 1989 until 2010, China's average quarterly GDP Growth was 9.31 percent reaching an historical high of 14.20 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.80 percent in December of 1990/ www.tradingeconomics.com)
  
• China goods are cheap that make US very Affraid (www.weforum.org)
  
•  China Entrepreneur playing a role in Bamboo Network that make China has Super Power Economics
  
•  Wages of the worker is cheap. The workforce is still cheap, costing $0.81 an hour, by the authors’ estimates, or just 2.7% of the cost of their American counterparts.
  
• Permanent member of United Nation Security Council
  
• One of the strong military power in the world
  
• Cohessive Power Under Comunis Party
• Smooth Leader Regeneration
• Strong Industry Development
• Strong Culture and Faith to the ancient legacy 

Weakness:

•   Corruption. Example: For 2008, China was ranked 72 of 179 countries by Transparancy International
•    Complex Bureaucracy
•    Environmental damage because of industry
•    Thirsty of Energy
•    Wide gap between rich and poor. The urban per capita net income stood at 17,175 yuan ($2,525) last year, in contrast to 5,153 yuan in the countryside
•     Lack of Democracy

Opportunity

•       Having good bilateral agreement with China
  
•       Free Trade Are and Tarade MOU between ASEAN and China
•       Asian Regionalism,
•        China as Main Market in the worlds
•        Cooperative military industry development
•        Using the "chinese" entrepreneur in Indonesia to attract investment

Threat

•       ASEAN as regional cooperation that become more solid and wanted to  cooperate in multilateralism and not bilateral
•        Border disputes issues
•     South China Sea Conflict Territory
•     Supremacy power competition between US and China in Southeast Asia

However, the consequences for Indonesia are:

• Indonesia will loose competitivenes with China in terms of export goods and foreign investment.
• Because of the Bamboo Network, the capital owned by the Chinese businessman in Indonesia will be fled to China.
• The wages of the worker is cheaper in China than in Indonesia, therefore attracted more investor.
• China will continue aggressively claim Natuna as its territory, to get the natural resources.
•  China has a strong role in world politics arena.
• Indonesia (ASEAN) could involved in resolving border dispute isuess.
• The establishment of Free Trade Area will make Chinese goods entering Indonesia in the large number.

Recommendation

•    Indonesia should be more cooperative with China, considering China as Major economic development
•    To solve problem of border dispute with ASEAN countries, the involved parties should work together in finding solution that will be satisfy all parties involved.
•      Indonesia should strengthen the ASEAN cooperation in order to deal with Chinese.

Role of Intelligence in Crisis Management of Ambalat Block Dispute

Role of Intelligence in Crisis Management of Ambalat Block Dispute

By David Raja MArpaung S.IP M.Def

         Block Ambalat dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia have shown the occurrence of crises in international relations. Symmetrical conflict efforts are made to get resolved through negotiation and peaceful way. Nevertheless, it is still necessary to build a crisis-management efforts to the conflict. Management is, of course, involve all elements of Indonesian politics and defense, such as: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defence,Armed Forces of Indonesia and the ranks of the Intelligence Community that related with this issue.

          In this case, the intelligence work to avoid any "suddenly" strategic that  potentially harm the state. Therefore, intelligence must be able to collect data and process information in order to strengthen information management systems and strategicanalysis in order to defend the sovereignty of Indonesia over Ambalat Block. Intelligence is the first line in anticipation of the opponent motion and analyze all the possibilities and opportunitiesthat may occur. As a cornerstone of national defense, intelligence must be able to manage their performance effectively through mechanisms that allow the exchange of information between intelligence division, and o intelligence bodies, such as police, BIN, BAIS, and etc.

           There are some intelligence bodies that  involved in Crisis management of Ambalat Block conflict,  consist of : foreign intelligence, defense intelligence,military intelligence and intelligence-related intelligence agencies.Foreign intelligence function collects all information related disputewas going on. Defense conduct counter intelligence and intelligence analysis of the strategic environment, particularly at the regional level, in order to anticipate the possibility of conflicti. 

             Military intelligence to process information on tactical fighter to face the possibility of open military conflict, including by measuring the opponent's military strength. Intelligence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs instantional perform intelligence related to the legal analysis and regional institutions and / or internationally- especially convention / international maritime law - anddopersuasion and propaganda in order to mobilize support forIndonesia in international forums ,while the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources conduct intelligence in the field of contentestimated reserves of fossil fuel energy in Ambalat, mainly related to the national interests of Indonesia in thefield of energy security.

            Intelligence functions that should be maximized in the face of asymmetric conflict such as disputes Ambalat is counter intelligence. Intelligence defense / intelligence aggressive should be able to anticipate the other party such  as information distortthe truth, especially about the strength and degree of the Indonesian military, and conduct deterrence by the other party to obtain information for the wrong information and can be used as a step of prevention.

             However, Like a crisis management, the functions of each intelligence service is a complementary function. The existence of a coordination that allows complementarity (complementarity) between function of intelligence is one thing that is inherent and vital in a crisis management. This coordination allows the exchange of information and capacity-building between intelligence institution. Any information that has been processed into intelligence must be reported to the President as the ultimate-user as consideration informulating public policy related to the issue of Ambalat. Therefore, the need for devolution of authority to a political authority which is responsible for delivering intelligence to the President.

This Manuscript was using in FGD that held by Ministry of Defense Republic of Indonesia